Friday, March 31, 2006

The Plan

Revelling in a big win over the Kings last night. Woke up this morning smiling, even though the house once again smells like dog ass - I mean the entire house. I think the big fellow may have been down on Gerrard Street having a little Indian buffet. Anyhow, I've been entertaining thoughts on next year's Oil. Getting ahead of myself I know but ...

Oil free agents include:

Samsonov
Dvorak
Pisani
Peca
Laraque
Murray
Harvey
Spacek
Tarnstrom
Ulanov
Roloson

Under Contract with @ salary or RFAs (I've factored in raises for guys like Torres - just estimates but I think its ballpark)

Smyth 3.5
Horcoff 2 (?) - I thought Horcoff had a two year deal - have no idea what he will sign for but let's say 2
Torres 1
Stoll .75
Hemsky 1
Moreau 1.1
Pouliot .8
Pronger 6.25
Smith 2
Staios 1.6
Bergeron .6
Greene .5
Markannen .9

Total 22 Million give or take

Lets start with the D - its easiest. I think they can keep Spacek for @ 2.5 - he's making 2.25 this year. Spacek has played for some bad teams and there is a glut of D on the market - I think he's a nice fit and would go to 2.75 with him. For the 7th D forget Tarnstrom and Ulanov - I am sure old Ooly is going to hang em' up. Let's pick up a solid vet who can take care of his own zone - a Weinrich type for 1.

That takes us to 25.5

Up front we need to resign Dvorak and Pisani. I think we can do both for a total of 2. Pisani for 1 for sure, maybe a little more. He may be my second favourite Oiler after Smytty. A heart and soul guy. Reward him. Dvorak takes a paycut to 1 from 1.6 - while I like him I can't see anyone paying him more then 1 for @ 10 goals a year.

We then need 5 forwards, mostly for the fourth line. Peca is gone anyhow. I like Murray as our 13th guy, he's versatile - keep him for .7. Two rooks - Jacques and Brodziak or Winchester - for 1. Another vet, someone like Kilger or MacCammond for .8.

We're at 30.

Here is where it gets iffy - I think we come in between 34-36 its a reasonable amount and leaves us wiggle room this year. If we can keep Sammy for 3 or a little more then do it - I have a feeling he's going to get a stupid offer from somewhere (leafs, islanders??) and while I like him they can't overpay for him. He's a good player, not a great one. Lets say 3.2 gets it done and keep our fingers crossed.

33.2

Goaler - no gambling this year - no taking a chance on Raycroft regaining his lost form or Kevin Weekes finally becoming a number 1 guy.

Three options

Esche - at 1 MM he is the cheapest but he also is not having a great year - having said that (and I know what I just said) I think he's a proven quality starter if a bit of a nutter

Giguere - at 4MM he is the most expensive but also the best of the lot - Burke is remaking his team and with a young keeper in the wings and Giggy up for UFA next summer this may be his best chance to get value

Roloson - while I am not totally sold on Rolly yet if he continues to get better and puts together a nice playoff performance (like winning the Cup maybe) then bring him back - he'd come in around 2MM

Total 34-36MM and some wiggle room to resign Smytty in 2007.

And if they go all the way, I mean all the way, resign every single last one of them, even Peca, damn the consequences!


Edited to reflect Horcoff's contract status - thought he had a two year deal at 1M per.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Horcoff doesn't have another year on his deal.

Black Dog Hates Skunks said...

You're right - I thought he had signed a two year deal. Thanks.

lowetide said...

What is Hemsky's status? I thought he was RFA due for a bump this summer?

Black Dog Hates Skunks said...

He is and that's part of the problem with this whole exercise, predicting what these guys will be looking at. I have Horcoff going from 1 to 2. Now, is that a reasonable raise? I have Hemsky getting a slight bump from 900K to 1 M, Torres going from 800K to 1 M and Stoll going from 500K to 750K. Am I lowballing these guys? Am I overestimating on Horcoff? Players don't have the hammer they once did with the ability to hold out and coming off of a lost year I think the teams still hold the upper hand in negotiations. I have no clue how it will play out. Thoughts on what these guys will be looking at?