Saturday, June 28, 2008

Madness

Souray giving McCarty a pounding.

Check out Mirtle's list of prominent UFAs and RFAs.

Pretty weak for the most part as teams sign their big names long before they hit the market, Vinny the latest to get the lifetime deal.

Coveted UFA (allegedly) Ryan Malone with two more points then Sam Gagner, this despite playing with Malkin or Crosby.

I'm reading Gare Joyce's book on scouting now; I believe LT did a post on it around Christmas. Really interesting stuff. Very early on he talks about Bonsignore and Ryan Smyth and the Oilers' thoughts when they drafted them and how one became a very good NHL player and the other ended up a total bust. One of the things that has struck me so far is a comment that the scouts' goal is to find a guy who can help their club win a Stanley Cup. Thats it. Of course this sounds quite obvious but I think its relevant to the foolishness that is going to happen on Canada Day.

A lot of happens on July 1st has nothing to do with accomplishing the goal of winning a Cup. Sometimes its PR plain and simple. Sometimes its a GM trying to save his job. Sometimes its just plain filler.

I think how a team behaves in the FA market, just as it does at the trade deadline, should be determined by context. At the trade deadline (or during the season) you shouldn't sell your future just to make the playoffs. The Oilers trading Brodziak, Pouliot and Chorney for Hossa and Dupuis would have been silly. They may have made the playoffs where they would have gotten waxed. Hossa would have left and the Oilers would have been short three young players who may have played a role three years down the road. On the other hand Pittsburgh making the move was a brilliant one, especially now as their roster looks to get ravaged. This seems like common sense but I think Don Waddell would be pretty happy to still have Coburn on his roster.

Presently the Oilers should be looking for filler, if they are looking for anything at all. Last summer they should have done the same. Signings like Garon, Tjarnqvist, Sykora - one or two year deals. That's all.

I can live with the Penner deal if he pots thirty a year for the next four years. Looking at this club the fact is there is weakness on the wing, especially LW, on the big club and on the farm. If this team is going to contend in 2009/2010 and in the following two years (this is the window I see) then Penner can play a role in that, I believe.

Which brings us back to Souray. Souray for two year or three years - filler until the kids matured - would have been ok. If you have the cap room and you want to blow it on Sheldon and that's not going to effect retaining other assets, then go to town. Waste of money, I think, but at least the contract is off the books quickly. Garth Snow has done a nice job keeping the Islanders competitive with this type of contract. Give a guy a good payout for a year or two and then let him move on when hopefully you have a young cheap alternative arriving from your farm syatem.

This is what worries me about the Oilers' new found wealth. Spending it on a five year contract for Mike Commodore or Ryan Malone isn't smart, not when you have guys who can match what they do for half the price. Bring in Mike Commodore to play second or third pair makes no sense when its going to cost 3M plus, likely, and you already have Gilbert, Staios and Greene. If you don't like Greene, fair enough, trade him but don't replace him with a guy making three times what you need to pay for a third pairing guy.

If I am Kevin Lowe I am trying to move Roloson and getting Horcoff to sign a contract like Langkow's. I am passing on Wade Redden, a second pairing Dman in a weaker conference. I'm passing on everyone.

I have Pitkanen and Grebeshkov on LD, two youngsters with a nice upside. I also have Smid and a bunch of other kids bubbling under, especially on the back end. Up front I am standing pat as well unless I have tagged Cogliano as my third line centre. If that is the role the organization sees for him then blow your brains out on a one or two year deal for Demitra or his equivalent.

Myself I would see if Nilsson, Cogliano and Gagner are the real deal. Personally I would give Pouilot a whirl as the third line pivot between Torres and Pisani. Of course that means Stoll is gone.

If Glencross goes then I bring in a tough guy to play some minutes on the fourth line when Moreau inevitably goes down.

Filler.

Nothing more.

10 comments:

Mr DeBakey said...

What if the Oilers had used this philosophy last saummer?

Instead of Penner & Souray
Sign [for example] Stuart & Nagy for $4.5mm each one-year.

On-ice would've been more or less the same.

Those two players would've earned more,
the Oilers would've been paying less.

Plus
The Oilers would've gone into last week-end's draft with
Pick 12, 22, 42, 53, and
Detroit's # 60 if they wanted
and maybe something for Nagy too.
[I know Nagy was hurt].

Could those picks been packeaged up with Stoll & Torres?
For
-Kubina from a "rebuilding" Torono
-Vermette from a reloading Ottawa?

Anonymous said...

What if..........
-the rumours from Oilfans about Peca are true.

Could we get Kubina for Stoll + Cogs?

Put Schremp in Cogs place for soft dining. Let Peca center Torres + Pisani on the third line as forwarded by dennis. Chopper takes GlenX spot . Pouls in the PB.

D pairs are Gilbert + Grebs. Souray + Staois, Kubina + Pits.

btw - Roli is attractive at 50% on re-entry. Not really that big a problem. If JDD still is not ready, I doubt he would be claimed.

Bruce said...

I wouldn't trade Cogliano for two Kubinas.

Toronto would be willing to let him and his $5MM stipend go for much less.

Anonymous said...

bruce,

okey dokey, even better.

Could we get Kubina for Stoll + Schremp?

The lineup I propose approximates the 06-07 Ducks @ fwd and the 07-08 Red Wings on D, albeit with a Clark Kent subbing for Superman (Lidstrom).

Quoting Lowe, I think 'This team could do some damage.'

Black Dog said...

Mr D. - I don't mind the Penner signing as much as I did although when you list all of those picks, wow. If he gets better then I am ok with it though. The Souray deal was a disaster though - Stuart, Danny Markov, whomever. Take your pick. I can't believe that they are going to move or sit one of Joni, Grebs or Smid because they have this guy clogging up a spot.

Anon - I'm with Bruce, no way I move Cogs unless I am hitting an absolute home run. Now, word has it that Kubina is likely sticking around now but even if he wasn't I would still pass unless they have given up on Matt Greene totally. If so then yes Kubina is filler for two years although that's an awful lot of money when you already have Souray to pay.

grease trap said...

Ah, Souray you handsome millstone!

What strikes me as actually quite tragic is that he really does appear as though he actually *wants* to earn his money.

spOILer said...

I'm agreed on the Commodore comment, but Salvador could bring some cheap depth to the bottom pairing for a lot less than the Bathrobe.

As you point out though, it's all about window.

Greene with a healthy knee could provide cheap defense for the window you're talking. Salt and season for another year and he might provide better shutdown minutes in that time period. He skates awfully well for a man his size. He just needs to figure the game out better and that takes coaching and experience.

Black Dog said...

spoiler - yeah I still like Greene and Smid too for that matter - two early to move them I think - and they are both nice and cheap

a veteran would not hurt - as long as he is cheap - but once again, presently there are seven D men on the roster - unless Smid or Greene get moved then one of them is in the PB

so if they sign a vet like Salvador that means they're moving Greene or Laddy

I disagree with that move. Greene was much better last year then the year previous, imo. I think he can still get better.

therealdeal said...

Joyce's book is just fantastic isn't it?

Black Dog said...

therealdeal - yeah, great great stuff, finished it last night

he had a blog going for a while too but it petered out - too bad