Sunday, January 25, 2009

Vincent


Still going to run through the rest of the roster over the next couple of days but I wanted to quickly address the Vinny rumours.

There are three trades the Oilers can make, as far as I am concerned.

The first, the type that I think they will make and should make, would be to shore up the roster so that this club makes the playoffs and has a shot at advancing if they slip into the #5 or # 6 slot. I think they need to pick up a LW to play with Cogliano and Pisani and then a second forward to play on the fourth line, work the PK etc.

Throw in a veteran for insurance for the bottom pair and a more reliable option than Deslauriers if Roli goes down and you're done. We're talking about guys on expiring contracts, veteran guys like Dean McAmmond, for example, guys you can pick up for low round picks or marginal prospects.

The second type of trade would be an upgrade that would cost the Oilers a guy like Nilsson or Grebeshkov. What I am thinking here is the Oilers picking up a guy with a little more experience who can replace the guy they are moving out. The player coming in would likely cost a little more, would be signed for another couple of years so they hit that first year where the Oilers intend to be strong contenders and would play for a club looking to rebuild. The Oilers might have to throw in a prospect or pick as well.

For the D I'm thinking a guy who can play top four who can make that first pass and bring a little more physically. A guy like Eric Brewer might be along the lines of what I am thinking. Up front, maybe a guy like Nick Hagman.

Not these players, mind you, but use them as an example of what I am thinking.

The third type of trade is the home run. The trade for a guy like Bouwmeester or Kovalchuk (signed to a long term deal, by necessity). The trade for Vinny.

The trade for an impact guy.

Lowe made such a trade for Pronger and tried to sign Hossa this past summer.

There are three things that make me nervous about this type of rumour.

1/ The contract. Eleven years is insane. Insane. I could handle the money for a five year deal. But in eleven years my daughter, who is in kindergarten now, would be a year away from graduating high school. Considering that this club is ~ 50 million heading into this summer already (minus Cole and a starting goalie) and that in another year they have to pay Cogliano and Gagner and the cap might drop significantly and I'm thinking adding eight million per may not be a good move right now.

2/ The cost. When I hear seven assets going the other way then I throw up in my mouth a little., no, make that a lot. Now of course it depends on who is heading the other way. If its Cogliano, Grebeshkov, Schremp, Chorney and a first then maybe, maybe, I could think about it for a moment. Substitute Wild for Chroney, Brodziak for Schremp, Gilbert for Grebs and then it becomes ridiculous.

I don't like moving Cogliano at all, by the way.

3/ The player. Here is where the debate gets hot. I'm thinking Vinny with Hemsky is probably a beautiful thing but there are plenty of guys I would prefer over him. Its hard to figure, I mean the guy's underlying numbers are bleah but how much of that is the team that he is playing with?

Of course the team that he is playing with was gutted to pay him, Richards and St. Louis.

It all comes back to that contract. I look at Philly and what they're up against with Briere.

I say no. Before I even get to # 2 or # 3 I say no because of #1.

7 comments:

doritogrande said...

Of course the team that he is playing with was gutted to pay him, Richards and St. Louis.

Ahem... Dan Boyle?

It's a pretty good synopsis, but unless you can draft a beauty talent, you've got to give up assets to get something. Vinny's probably the biggest name on the market this season, and will likely remain so. Looking back at the package Hossa landed last year (Armstrong, Christensen, Esposito, 1st rounder) that was seen as a gross overpay at the time too. And Hossa split after the playoffs. Vinny will definitely command much more in return because of the length of his contract. This is a guy that cornerstones a franchise.

If the Oilers hadn't re-upped Horcoff, I'd be all over this kind of deal. But we'd have one of the more expensive 1-2C tandems in the league if the trade went through. Horcoff can do the job, which makes Lecavalier unnecessary to the Oilers.

I'm liking Vancouver for this trade. They've got a multitude of contracts expiring at the end of the year (Sedins, Sundin, Ohlund come immediately to mind). They've also got some good talent to shop around. New boss Gillis has a lot of bullets in the chamber if he wants to go after Vinny. Cory Schneider needs a place to play, because he's not going to get it behind Luongo. Youngsters Mason Raymond and Alex Edler would be attractive to the Bolts too. Add a couple first rounders, and the Nucks can put together a better offer than the Oilers without even trying.

Mr DeBakey said...

7 assets? – If 2 of them are Paukovich & Rohlfs, 7 assets is good

It could work, barely, if the Cap doesn’t fall too far.

The main guys going to Tampa would have to be Penner & Gagner
- Penner to move $$$
- Gagner because he becomes superfluous & they’re not going to be able to pay him

All the mid-pay guys would have to go over the next couple of seasons – Staios, Moreau, Pisani, Nilsson.

In two years, you’d end up with something like this:
Lecavalier, Cole, Eberle 13,060,606
Horcoff, Hemsky, Brule 10,348,000
Cogliano, Pisani, Pouliot 3,857,500
Nash, Brodziak, Jacques 2,457,083
Stortini, Potulny 1,409,500

Gilbert, Souray 9,400,000
Visnovsky, Grebeshkov 8,225,000
Peckham, Smid 2,272,580
Wild 850,000

2 Goalies 4,500,000
Total just at $56 Million

Obviously some of these names are representative [Pisani a decent veteran forward at $1.25]
I gave the FAs raises – Cogliano at $1.7mm for instance – 5% to 50%

Obviously if you replace Horcoff, Cole, Visnovsky or Souray with a $2,000,000 guy it becomes much easier.

Black Dog said...

dg - good for them then

seriously I like Vinny and I'm not as down on him as many are but that contract is ridiculous

beyond ridiculous

look at the Isles and DiPietro and the issues there already

if it were five years then I'd be a lot more open to it

if Vinny were 21 then I'd be a little more open to it

but not 11 years for a guy in his late 20s

Black Dog said...

mr d.

yeah I'd think Penner would have to be part of it as well

I don't think its going to happen the way Matheson describes it - Tampa is in financial trouble and can't take on a boatload of cash although of course if they get out from under Vinny's contract then they can certainly move whoever they take on to replace that I guess

Billy said...

I'd be pissed if Vinny came to Vancouver at the cost of the Sedins leavin. The twins get no respect, and it kills me. They have been consistent 1st liners who outplay there matchups night after night. Throw in there willingness to sign for cheap in Van, and they are unlosable.

And I think that they would be great playoff guys, they've struggled somewhat in the clutch, but I pin that on the special attention they received.

No to Vinny, although I would let Sundin walk if it meant keepin him.

ps. Edlers contract kicks in next year at 3.2 if I remember correctly, Not super cheap, but not bad either...

Bruce said...

I'm by no means convinced that Vinny and Ales would be a marriage made in heaven. Not enough pucks on the ice.

Black Dog said...

bruce - yeah its always hard to say how that works out

When Mogliny came to the Leafs they figured he and Sundin would be terrific together but that is what happened.

What the Oilers really need for Hemsky, imo, is a burly LW who comes to play every night, crashes the net with abandon, creates space out there with his size, basically a LH version of Iginla but 5 or 6 years younger

Or maybe Penner could show up to play hard every night. That would do it.